Brandon Morrow is set to sign a three-year, $20 million contract extension using the Toronto Blue Jays. The deal reportedly features a $10 million option or a $1 million buyout in 2015. While we dont
Hines Ward Jersey have the nuances of the deal at this time including just how much Morrow could make in each of his three seasons its certain to create some arguments among fans.
In Morrows two seasons using the Blue Jays, his 4.62 ERA has been below-average among American League starters. Yet Morrows FIP and xFIP throughout the same time indicate that he should be one of the leagues better ones. As a result, many stat analysts have predicted a major improvement from Morrow. But until his ERA matches up with his advanced stats, Morrow is going to remain a frustrating player.
During yesteryear two seasons, the main difference between Morrows ERA and FIP (E-F) has been extreme. This year, among pitchers with a minimum of 140 innings, Morrow 1.33 difference was the best in baseball. While the large difference meant Morrow was likely to improve, he didnt overcome much. Morrows 1.08 E-F this year was the fourth highest on the leader board among qualified pitchers. Though his peripherals indicate Morrow pitched far better than his ERA, everything has yet to even themselves out.
Joe Gilliam Jersey A take a look at Morrows performance with men on base reveals some interesting findings:
Brandon Morrow 2010IPK%BB%FB%BABIPBases Empty77.227.611.540.2.312Men on Base68.229.29.343.7.380Men in Scoring35.129.810.143.8.411Brandon Morrow 2011IPK%BB%FB%BABIPBases Empty10425.88.737.6.273Men on Base75.126.59.247.4.335Men in Scoring4026.310.249.5.355Morrows peripherals particularly his K and BB percentage dont change everything drastically as he has runners on base. In 2010, Morrows walk rate was really at its lowest with men on base. While his walk rate increased with men on base this year, his strikeout rate jumped too.
Morrow tends to quit more fly balls with men on base, too perhaps because of pitching in the zone to get more strikeouts. In the end typically expect fly balls to guide to some lower BABIP, Morrows BABIP actually increased in these situations.
Morrows poor BABIP with men on base could be one reason behind his difference between ERA and FIP. Either that, or Morrow is terrible from the stretch. That argument doesnt seem likely since
T J Watt Jersey most of his peripherals stay fairly consistent with men on base.
For Morrows ERA to complement his FIP, his BABIP in crucial situations must decrease. Thankfully for Morrow, theres lots of year-to-year variance in league leaders with regards to BABIP and men on base. Over the past five seasons, only five pitchers have completely finished in the top 10 in BABIP with men on base more often than once. Those five are Morrow, Derek Lowe, Livan Hernandez, Justin Verlander and Kevin Millwood. The fact that Lowe, Hernandez and Millwood made the list multiple times shouldnt be as surprising, since theyve routinely quit lots of hits each season.
On this list, perhaps Verlander is most comparable to Morrow. Its not a perfect comparison Morrow strikes out and walks more hitters than Verlander but the other guys on the list are generally low-strikeout guys who quit lots of hits. Like Morrow, Verlanders BABIP with men on base ranked within the top ten for two consecutive seasons. Following those two years, though, his BABIP
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So whats next for Morrow? It would appear that luck actually, the po sible lack of it has played a large role in Morrows struggles. Even when Morrow is le s effective pitching from the stretch, its incredibly unlikely hell end up with another top 10 BABIP with men on base for another season. This season, his ERA might finally match his FIP. If that happens, Morrow would go from probably the most frustrating starters in baseball to one of the greatest.